A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
