Everyday Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The typical figure of everyday killings per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh official data. But, security analysts have advised that homicide data may not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when the President took the presidency in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen over these past months is extremely notable,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily military campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

But, security experts warned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true given the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may hide periods when there were especially elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.