From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”