Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.