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PHEVs emit nearly 5x more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a recent analysis.

Growing Gap In Lab and Real-World CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs emit only one-fifth less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel cars, according to analysis conducted by a advocacy group. This contrasts sharply with lab tests, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in emissions.

Analysts examined information from in-vehicle energy use monitors of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in the EU from 2021 and 2023. They found that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than lab estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while lab-reported emissions are decreasing,” stated a lead analyst participating in the study. “That discrepancy is growing and poses a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Key Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Researchers attributed the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of kilometers travelled in electric mode compared to total mileage. They found that just a quarter of driving was done in EV mode, whereas lab estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in electric mode, emission levels were significantly higher than official projections. This happened because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate independently, leading to engines using fossil fuels for nearly a third of the distance covered in electric mode.

Policy and Economic Consequences

Based on estimates, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output allowed several major automaker companies to escape more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing adherence with European Union fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs would spend about €500 more per year in operating costs than is assumed under laboratory tests.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are obviously far from the truth,” commented a transport analyst. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and saving costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than regular petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of energy use, CO₂ production, and operating costs.”

Political Debate and Industry Pressure

Hybrid vehicles have recently been drawn again into policy debates as carmakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ targets. A proposed prohibition on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced intense lobbying from the automotive sector and opposition from EU countries with large automotive industries.

Some senior officials have proposed PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” solution to include in the regulation.

An external energy policy specialist, who was not involved with the study, described the report a “very useful contribution” after years in which segments of the car industry claimed there was too little information to properly assess real-world CO2 output.

“These findings show, without question, that the gap in lab and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is significantly larger than for petrol or conventional cars,” they stated. “All regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be implemented with utmost caution and considering this data.”