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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd