🔗 Share this article

Within the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.